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Economic Risks Associated with an Influenza Pandemic

Economic Risks Associated with an Influenza PandemicEconomic Risks Associated with an Influenza Pandemic (book)

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Prepared Testimony of James Newcomb, Managing Director for Research, Bio Economic Research Associates before the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations - November 9, 2005

Genome Synthesis and Design Futures: Implications for the US Economy

Genome Synthesis and Design Futures: Implications for the US EconomyGenome Synthesis and Design Futures: Implications for the US Economy (book)

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This book analyzes recent and expected impacts of the advance and adoption of new gene sequencing and synthesis technologies and techniques, and looks in depth at their likely significance in three strategically important sectors of the US economy: energy, chemicals, and vaccines.

Avian Influenza Update: Assessing the Pandemic Risk - 06-10-2005

Avian Influenza Update: Assessing the Pandemic Risk - 06-10-2005Avian Influenza Update: Assessing the Pandemic Risk - 06-10-2005 (brochure)

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This is a short paper prepared by bio-era to update members of the bio-era "Thinking Ahead" service, on how bio-era assesses pandemic risk.

McDonald’s Global Policy on Antibiotic Use in Meat Supply

McDonald’s Global Policy on Antibiotic Use in Meat SupplyMcDonald’s Global Policy on Antibiotic Use in Meat Supply (book)

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McDonald’s Corporation’s recent decision to require its meat suppliers to phase out the use of certain antibiotics for animal growth promotion is a watershed event for the meat production industry. McDonald’s, the largest single buyer of meat in the U.S., and much of the world, is using its buying power to manage a growing array of attributes linked to its products and brand identity including consumer “intangibles” related to social responsibility, sustainable food supply, animal welfare, and human health. Other companies, both in the fast food industry and in grocery stores, are likely to take similar steps to manage product attributes related to human health. Responding to these new requirements will reinforce changes already underway in the meat supply industry, opening new avenues for product differentiation, tightening the links between meat suppliers and their customers, and spurring new investment in quality assurance and traceability.

Rapid Advances in Enabling Biotechnologies: Implications for Biotech, Agriculture, and Food

Rapid Advances in Enabling Biotechnologies: Implications for Biotech, Agriculture, and FoodRapid Advances in Enabling Biotechnologies: Implications for Biotech, Agriculture, and Food (book)

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This is an illustrated transcript of a bio-era teleconference, in which bio-era experts and guest commentators address the implications of ongoing advances in enabling biotechnologies as they affect stakeholders in the agriculture and food systems.

A Plague of Frogs: What Does the Battle over Atrazine Mean for Agriculture and Agrochemicals?

A Plague of Frogs: What Does the Battle over Atrazine Mean for Agriculture and Agrochemicals?A Plague of Frogs: What Does the Battle over Atrazine Mean for Agriculture and Agrochemicals? (book)

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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency stands at the center of a storm over the re-registration of atrazine, one of the most widely used herbicides in the world. Atrazine is being reviewed as part of EPA’s ongoing program to evaluate older pesticides to ensure that they meet current health and environmental safety standards; the agency’s review entails a comprehensive reassessment of existing restrictions on the use of the herbicide. Recent scientific reports have suggested that atrazine disrupts the hormonal systems of certain amphibians, and may be linked to worldwide population declines among these species. These studies have been challenged by other scientists, however, who claim that the evidence of such effects is inconclusive.

Thinking Ahead: Business Continuity Planning for an Avian Influenza Pandemic - June 2005

Thinking Ahead: Business Continuity Planning for an Avian Influenza Pandemic - June 2005Thinking Ahead: Business Continuity Planning for an Avian Influenza Pandemic - June 2005 (brochure)

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This is a short essay by bio-era Managing Director for Research, on business continuity planning for influenza pandemic.

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H5N1 Avian Influenza: A Global Update of Recent Events - 03-21-2006

H5N1 Avian Influenza: A Global Update of Recent Events - 03-21-2006H5N1 Avian Influenza: A Global Update of Recent Events - 03-21-2006 (brochure)

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This is a bio-era update report regarding recent events of significance around the H5N1 influenza virus.

The Tanah Karo H5N1 Cluster in Indonesia: A Signpost Event? - -5-19-2006

The Tanah Karo H5N1 Cluster in Indonesia: A Signpost Event? - -5-19-2006The Tanah Karo H5N1 Cluster in Indonesia: A Signpost Event? - -5-19-2006 (brochure)

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This is a bio-era H5N1 Signpost Alert on the Tanah Karo cluster of H5N1 infections in Indonesia in May of 2006.

Bio-era H5N1 Signpost Alert: Countries to Watch - 04-24-2006

Bio-era H5N1 Signpost Alert: Countries to Watch - 04-24-2006Bio-era H5N1 Signpost Alert: Countries to Watch - 04-24-2006 (brochure)

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This is a bio-era H5N1 Signpost Alert for participants in bio-era's "Thinking Ahead" service.

Biology and Borders -- Avian Flu: Evolving New Approaches to Emerging Diseases - March 2004

Biology and Borders -- Avian Flu: Evolving New Approaches to Emerging Diseases - March 2004Biology and Borders -- Avian Flu: Evolving New Approaches to Emerging Diseases - March 2004 (book)

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This is bio-era's first report on the outbreak in 2004 of H5N1 Avian Influenza in Southeast Asia.

Avian Influenza Update: Setting the World on Edge - 11-10-2005

Avian Influenza Update: Setting the World on Edge - 11-10-2005Avian Influenza Update: Setting the World on Edge - 11-10-2005 (book)

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This is a bio-era update report to members of the bio-era "Thinking Ahead" service on the global status of H5N1 avian influenza.

AgBioTech 2005: Regional Trends in Adoption and Acceptance

AgBioTech 2005: Regional Trends in Adoption and AcceptanceAgBioTech 2005: Regional Trends in Adoption and Acceptance (book)

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This report is a comprehensive global review of trends in adoption and acceptance around agricultural biotechnology crops. The report seeks to characterize developments regionally -- Africa, Latin America, Asia, etc., -- and for selected key countries within each region (Brazil, Colombia, etc.). It also characterizes who the key institutional stakeholders are in each selected country, and where they stand on the GMO/agbiotech debate.

Biofuels and the Economic Crisis: A Good Sweating?

Biofuels and the Economic Crisis: A Good Sweating?Biofuels and the Economic Crisis: A Good Sweating? (book)

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This is a bio-era analysis of the impact of the economic crisis on the biofuels industry.

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The Big Squeeze: New Fundamentals for Food and Fuel Markets

The Big Squeeze: New Fundamentals for Food and Fuel MarketsThe Big Squeeze: New Fundamentals for Food and Fuel Markets (book)

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In recent years, rising prices for agricultural and energy commodities have heightened interest in the economic fundamentals governing these markets. This report presents bio-era’s latest thinking on some of these fundamentals, and how they may be changing in unanticipated ways. Part of what we explore here concerns the interactions between the principal “long forces” affecting these markets, including the forces of climate change, the limits of conventional crude oil supply expansion, and the impacts of continued underlying growth in global populations and economies. Not surprisingly, we foresee these long forces acting in combination to place additional upward pressure on fuel and food prices, and we present a model for thinking about the dynamics at work in what we hope is a simple, but useful, way.

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Thinking Ahead: Recent Advances in Mapping the Evolution and Spread of H5N1

Thinking Ahead: Recent Advances in Mapping the Evolution and Spread of H5N1Thinking Ahead: Recent Advances in Mapping the Evolution and Spread of H5N1 (book)

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One somewhat unexpected benefit of continued global concern regarding the threat posed by H5N1 avian influenza, is the emergence of many new technologies for managing the H5N1 threat, and responding to H5N1 disease outbreaks. Some of these technologies are the direct result of government investment in the research and development for specific countermeasures. We probably would not, for example, have viable H5N1 vaccine had the US government not been willing to commit in advance to a substantial purchase of H5N1 vaccine, thus in effect, funding the required R&D effort.

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Laying the Foundations for a Biotech Economy

Laying the Foundations for a Biotech EconomyLaying the Foundations for a Biotech Economy (book)

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Welcome to the Paleobiotic Age. Just as today we look back somewhat wistfully on our quaint Paleolithic — literally “old stone” — ancestors, so will our descendants see the present age as that of “old biology”, inhabited by Paleobiotic Man. The technologies we use to manipulate biological systems are experiencing dramatic improvement1,2, and as a result are driving change throughout human economies.

Blindfolded Economists and the Biotech Elephant: Estimating the Size of the Biotech Economy

Blindfolded Economists and the Biotech Elephant: Estimating the Size of the Biotech EconomyBlindfolded Economists and the Biotech Elephant: Estimating the Size of the Biotech Economy (book)

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The words “biotechnology” and “biotech” are often used by the press and industry observers in very limited and inconsistent ways. Those words may be used to describe only pharmaceutical products, or in another context only the industry surrounding genetically modified plants, while in yet another context a combination of biofuels, plastics, chemicals, and plant extracts. The total economic value of biotechnology companies is therefore difficult to assess, and it is challenging to disentagle the component of revenue due each to public and private firms.

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The Global Bioeconomy in 2008: A Year of Living Dangerously?

The Global Bioeconomy in 2008: A Year of Living Dangerously?The Global Bioeconomy in 2008: A Year of Living Dangerously? (book)

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What major developments and possible surprises lie ahead for the bioeconomy in 2008? Bio-era forsees an exceptionally volatile year ahead in global agricultural commodity markets, with significant long-term implications for the biofuels industry and other parts of the bioeconomy.

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Avian Influenza Update: H5N1 in 2008 - Is a Now-Familiar Pattern Relaxing Pandemic Concerns?

Avian Influenza Update: H5N1 in 2008 - Is a Now-Familiar Pattern Relaxing Pandemic Concerns?Avian Influenza Update: H5N1 in 2008 - Is a Now-Familiar Pattern Relaxing Pandemic Concerns? (book)

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During the first quarter of 2008, we are once again witness to a seasonal resurgence of reported disease outbreaks due to H5N1 avian influenza. So far this year, human cases and deaths due to H5N1 have been confirmed in Indonesia, Vietnam and China. These sporadic human cases fall within the context of resurgent animal outbreaks of H5N1 disease across 18 countries since December 2007. Most of these outbreaks have occurred in poultry populations, including chickens, turkeys, geese, and ducks. However, a few in China, Poland, and the United Kingdom have involved wild birds.* The resurgent pattern of avian and human cases reminds us that H5N1 remains endemic across a broad swath of Eurasian, Middle-East, and Aftican geography, and can be expected to periodically infect both commercial and domestic poultry flock in those regions of the world for years to come. What follows is a brief summary of significant H5N1 events so far in 2008.

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Thinking Ahead: Anticipating Early Impacts of an Avian Influenza Pandemic - 03-09-2005

Thinking Ahead: Anticipating Early Impacts of an Avian Influenza Pandemic - 03-09-2005Thinking Ahead: Anticipating Early Impacts of an Avian Influenza Pandemic - 03-09-2005 (book)

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This is the illustrated transcript of a bio-era web teleconference on "Thinking Ahead: Anticipating the Early Impacts of an Avian Influenza Pandemic" held on March 9, 2005.

The Challenge of Corporate Pandemic Planning and Preparedness - 05-10-2005

The Challenge of Corporate Pandemic Planning and Preparedness - 05-10-2005The Challenge of Corporate Pandemic Planning and Preparedness - 05-10-2005 (book)

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This is an illustrated transcript of a bio-era web teleconference on the challenge of corporate pandemic planning and preparedness held on May 10, 2005.

Recent H5N1 Outbreaks - The Evolving Challenge of Defining and Communicating Pandemic Risk - 06-22-2006

Recent H5N1 Outbreaks - The Evolving Challenge of Defining and Communicating Pandemic Risk - 06-22-2006Recent H5N1 Outbreaks - The Evolving Challenge of Defining and Communicating Pandemic Risk - 06-22-2006 (book)

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This is an illustrated transcript of a bio-era web teleconference on the evolving challenge of defining and communicating pandemic risk that took place on June 22, 2006 and featured guest commentators, Dr. David Nabarro, UN Senior System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, Dr. William Karesh, Director of Field Veterinary Services, Wildlife Conservation Society, and independent risk communications consultant, Dr. Peter Sandmann.

H5N1 Update - The Use and Value of Pandemic Plans - 08-23-2006

H5N1 Update - The Use and Value of Pandemic Plans - 08-23-2006H5N1 Update - The Use and Value of Pandemic Plans - 08-23-2006 (book)

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This is the illustrated transcript of a bio-era web teleconference that took place on August 23, 2006 to discuss the uses and value of pandemic plans. Guest commentators included Michael Robach, VP, Food Safety at Cargill, David Parsley, Sr. VP, Applebee's, Dr. Rob Goldsmith, Acting Medical Director, GE, and Gil Meyer, Issues Manager, DuPont.

H5N1 Scenarios - Economic and Evolutionary Implications of Recent Developments - 03-21-2006

H5N1 Scenarios - Economic and Evolutionary Implications of Recent Developments - 03-21-2006H5N1 Scenarios - Economic and Evolutionary Implications of Recent Developments - 03-21-2006 (book)

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This is the illustrated transcript of a web teleconference on the economic and evolutionary significance of recent developments regarding the H5N1 virus which took place on March 21, 2006

Assessing the Spread of H5N1 - The Outlook for Turkey and Beyond - 01-31-2006

Assessing the Spread of H5N1 - The Outlook for Turkey and Beyond - 01-31-2006Assessing the Spread of H5N1 - The Outlook for Turkey and Beyond - 01-31-2006 (book)

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This is the illustrated transcript of a bio-era "Thinking Ahead" web teleconference assessing the spread of H5N1 which occurred on January 31, 2006.

Thinking Ahead: The Business Significance of an Avian Influenza Pandemic

Thinking Ahead: The Business Significance of an Avian Influenza PandemicThinking Ahead: The Business Significance of an Avian Influenza Pandemic (book)

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In this report, bio-era assesses the current avian influenza situation and explores the economic and business implications of a global pandemic.

Thinking Ahead: Using Scenarios to Understand the Risks of an Influenza Pandemic

Thinking Ahead: Using Scenarios to Understand the Risks of an Influenza PandemicThinking Ahead: Using Scenarios to Understand the Risks of an Influenza Pandemic (book)

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In this report, bio-era develops six scenarios to describe plausible outcomes that could emerge from the current avian influenza crisis.

Crop Biomanufacturing — Part II: Implications for the Farm Sector

Crop Biomanufacturing — Part II: Implications for the Farm SectorCrop Biomanufacturing — Part II: Implications for the Farm Sector (book)

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In this report, bio-era examines crop-based production of biopharmaceuticals, and how this will impact the farm sector.

Crop Biomanufacturing — Part I: The Economic Opportunity

Crop Biomanufacturing — Part I: The Economic OpportunityCrop Biomanufacturing — Part I: The Economic Opportunity (book)

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In this report, bio-era examines the economic drivers and constraints for the use of crop plants as production platforms for industrial and pharmaceutical compounds.

Agricultural Biotechnology at the Crossroads: The Changing Structure of the Industry

Agricultural Biotechnology at the Crossroads: The Changing Structure of the IndustryAgricultural Biotechnology at the Crossroads: The Changing Structure of the Industry (book)

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This is an independent analysis by bio-era done in early 2003 of the structure of the agricultural biotechnology business and the trends affecting consolidation in the industry.

H5N1 Update: What is Happening with the Virus and Countermeasures?

H5N1 Update: What is Happening with the Virus and Countermeasures?H5N1 Update: What is Happening with the Virus and Countermeasures? (book)

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This is an illustrated and edited transcript of a bio-era webinar, held on January 10, 2007 to update bio-era clients and listeners on the global spread and status of H5N1 influenza and countermeasure developments.

The Sustainable Biofuels Lab

The Sustainable Biofuels LabThe Sustainable Biofuels Lab (book)

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The Sustainable Biofuels Lab is a multi-stakeholder project to identify requirements for, and accelerate the achievement of, sustainable biofuels at scale.

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Rising Waters: Scenario Planning 2010 – 2030 Executive Summary

Rising Waters: Scenario Planning 2010 – 2030 Executive SummaryRising Waters: Scenario Planning 2010 – 2030 Executive Summary (book)

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Climate change is already evident in the Hudson Valley — and is predicted to accelerate in the coming years. Most climate scientists expect climate in the Hudson Valley to change dramatically over the course of the coming century. The Rising Waters project aims to strengthen the preparedness and adaptive capacity of the Hudson River Estuary Watershed (HREW) to meet the impacts of future climate change. To help people think about the expected local impacts of climate change — and how the Hudson Valley might prepare for them, the Rising Waters project used scenario planning methodologies. Creating scenarios educates participants on important aspects of complicated problems and helps to build a shared conceptual framework for dialogue leading to potential solutions. Scenarios build adaptive capacity because they build shared group understanding.

Rising Waters: Scenario Planning 2010 – 2030 Final Report

Rising Waters: Scenario Planning 2010 – 2030 Final ReportRising Waters: Scenario Planning 2010 – 2030 Final Report (book)

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Climate change is already evident in the Hudson Valley — and is predicted to accelerate in the coming years. Most climate scientists expect climate in the Hudson Valley to change dramatically over the course of the coming century. The Rising Waters project aims to strengthen the preparedness and adaptive capacity of the Hudson River Estuary Watershed (HREW) to meet the impacts of future climate change. To help people think about the expected local impacts of climate change — and how the Hudson Valley might prepare for them, the Rising Waters project used scenario planning methodologies. Creating scenarios educates participants on important aspects of complicated problems and helps to build a shared conceptual framework for dialogue leading to potential solutions. Scenarios build adaptive capacity because they build shared group understanding.

U.S. Economic Impact of Advanced Biofuels Production: Perspectives to 2030

U.S. Economic Impact of Advanced Biofuels Production: Perspectives to 2030U.S. Economic Impact of Advanced Biofuels Production: Perspectives to 2030 (book)

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The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for transportation fuels sets minimum levels of renewable fuels that must be blended into gasoline and other transportation fuels from 2006 to 2022. Specific requirements for blending advanced biofuels, including cellulosic biofuels and biomass-based biodiesel, begin at 0.6 billion gallons per year in 2009 and rise to 21 billion gallons in 2022. The RFS levels for advanced biofuels production will drive the creation of a major new industry, creating a foundation for future technology development and commercial growth.

Economic Impact of Selected Infectious Diseases

Economic Impact of Selected Infectious DiseasesEconomic Impact of Selected Infectious Diseases (book)

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Bio-era estimated the economic impacts of selected emerging infectious diseases occurring between 1995 and 2008 based on information available from government and academic studies, news reports, and direct communications with health experts. Our approach has been to estimate, where possible, the full range of economic impacts caused by disease outbreaks including the direct, indirect, and systemic costs of disease outbreaks.

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Monitoring, Surveillance and Response to Emerging Infectious Diseases: Opportunities for Public Private Partnerships

Monitoring, Surveillance and Response to Emerging Infectious Diseases: Opportunities for Public Private PartnershipsMonitoring, Surveillance and Response to Emerging Infectious Diseases: Opportunities for Public Private Partnerships (book)

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Technological advances in disease surveillance and monitoring, coupled with innovative public-private partnerships, are opening new avenues for infectious disease control and prevention. Integrated approaches to understanding disease emergence factors spanning human, domestic animal, and wildlife populations are gaining support and creating alignment among diverse institutions and stakeholders. These stakeholders include the food industry, the wildlife conservation community, government agencies responsible for human and animal health, and other organizations, ranging from the high tech industry to pharmaceutical companies.

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Economic Opportunities and Benefits of Implementing One World-One Health Strategies for Health Promotion and Disease Prevention

Economic Opportunities and Benefits of Implementing One World-One Health Strategies for Health Promotion and Disease PreventionEconomic Opportunities and Benefits of Implementing One World-One Health Strategies for Health Promotion and Disease Prevention (book)

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Prepared on behalf of the Public Health Agency of Canada. Countries that adopt integrated approaches to health promotion and disease prevention for humans, domestic animals, and wildlife may be able to reap significant net economic benefits compared with traditional approaches that are more fragmented and less effective. Emerging infectious diseases in humans and animals are imposing billions of dollars of economic damages to economies around the world. Prevention and management of disease outbreaks can play a significant role in a nation’s overall economic performance. For example, even though relatively few Canadians were infected by the 2003 SARS outbreak in Canada, the disease significantly affected the country’s overall economic performance in the second quarter of that year.

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Issue Alert: Biofuels Trade Policies Stir Controversy: Near-Term Decisions Could Shape Future Trade Flows

Issue Alert: Biofuels Trade Policies Stir Controversy: Near-Term Decisions Could Shape Future Trade FlowsIssue Alert: Biofuels Trade Policies Stir Controversy: Near-Term Decisions Could Shape Future Trade Flows (brochure)

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This is a bio-era Issue Alert regarding the growing importance of issues affecting the future of international trade in biofuels -- particularly ethanol.

Global Thought Leader Survey: Agricultural Biotechnology 2005

Global Thought Leader Survey: Agricultural Biotechnology 2005Global Thought Leader Survey: Agricultural Biotechnology 2005 (book)

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This document presents the results of a global survey of thought leaders on their attitudes toward agricultural biotechnology carried out by bio-era in conjunction with McCallister Associates in 2005.

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Avian Influenza - Using Scenarios for Pandemic Planning and Preparedness - 04-07-2005

Avian Influenza - Using Scenarios for Pandemic Planning and Preparedness - 04-07-2005Avian Influenza - Using Scenarios for Pandemic Planning and Preparedness - 04-07-2005 (book)

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This is an illustrated transcript of a bio-era teleconference on using scenarios for pandemic planning and preparedness held on April 4, 2005.

Avian Influenza - Situation Update and Scenarios Review - 09-01-2005

Avian Influenza - Situation Update and Scenarios Review - 09-01-2005Avian Influenza - Situation Update and Scenarios Review - 09-01-2005 (book)

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This is an illustrated transcript of a bio-era web teleconference updating participants on the global H5N1 situation and reviewing the bio-era scenarios framework. Guest commentators on the call include Charles Reimenschneider of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and Dr. William Karesh, Director of Field Veterinary Services for the Wildlife Conservation Society.

Biology and Borders: SARS and the New Economics of Biosecurity

Biology and Borders: SARS and the New Economics of BiosecurityBiology and Borders: SARS and the New Economics of Biosecurity (book)

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This is a bio-era analysis of the SARS outbreak, and its broader significance for the challenge of new emerging diseases, and biosecurity as a whole.

Spinning Straw into Gold?: The Global Outlook for Biofuels

Spinning Straw into Gold?: The Global Outlook for BiofuelsSpinning Straw into Gold?: The Global Outlook for Biofuels (book)

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This is a bio-era biofuels global outlook done in 2006.

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